Coinbase Warns New US Tax Rules May Shift Gamblers Toward Prediction Markets
Coinbase analysts highlight a looming tax policy shift that could reshape gambling behavior. The 2025 provision in Trump’s ‘One Big Beautiful Bill Act’ restricts loss deductions against winnings, creating potential ‘phantom income’ tax liabilities for casino and sportsbook patrons. This changes the risk-reward calculus for frequent bettors.
Prediction markets—often structured as financial derivatives—may emerge as tax-advantaged alternatives. Their contract-based settlements could fall outside the new gambling tax framework, offering arbitrage opportunities for tax-sensitive participants. The policy unintentionally incentivizes migration from traditional venues to crypto-native platforms.
The analysis suggests watchlisting prediction market tokens (FORTH, POLY, GNOSIS) and exchange coins (BNB, FTT) as potential beneficiaries. Market makers are already adjusting liquidity pools for anticipated volume shifts.
